A piece of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is set to crash into the moon on August 2, 2026, according to analysis by Bill Gray, a space object tracker. The debris, part of the rocket’s upper stage and roughly the size of a five-story building, will hit the moon’s sunlit northern region near Einstein Crater at 2:35 a.m. ET, traveling at more than 5,000 miles per hour. The impact could create a crater at least 17 meters wide, Gray said. The debris was part of the Falcon 9 rocket that launched two lunar landers and scientific instruments to the moon in January 2025 from Kennedy Space Center’s Pad 39A.
SpaceX did not intend for the rocket stage to hit the moon, the Associated Press reported. The company has not responded to requests for comment from NPR. The debris will strike the moon’s near side, which will be partially illuminated by the sun at the time of impact, making the event potentially visible from Earth with large telescopes. However, experts say the resulting dust plume might be hard to detect even with professional equipment.
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) will monitor the impact. Project scientist Brent Garry said the orbiter will pass over the impact site before and after the crash to study surface changes. Garry, speaking in June during a NASA discussion about the event, noted that the LRO could refine its targeting a week after impact to analyze the site more closely. The mission aims to gather data on how the moon’s surface reacts to high-speed collisions.
The unintended crash highlights the growing challenge of tracking space debris. The Falcon 9’s upper stage, designed to remain in orbit after delivering payloads, was left unmonitored after the January 2025 mission. Gray’s software, which tracks objects in space, predicted the moonbound trajectory months ago. SpaceX has not addressed whether it will take steps to prevent similar events in the future.