A new survey released July 17 shows Naples Congressman Byron Donalds trailing Democrat David Jolly in the race for Florida governor, according to a Change Research poll conducted July 9 to 11. The survey found Jolly leading Donalds 46 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent. The results come as Donalds, a Trump-endorsed candidate, faces unexpected challenges in a state that has shifted rightward in recent years.
Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties, holds his edge despite being largely unknown to voters. Only 45 percent of likely voters said they had heard or read anything about him, according to the poll. His lead could narrow as the general election campaign progresses, but early data suggests he may gain momentum as more voters learn about him.
Donalds' approval ratings in Congress are low, with just 31 percent of voters approving of his work. Support among some Republicans appears soft, and Jolly's lead widened to 48 percent to 39 percent when respondents were given short descriptions of both candidates. This suggests that as the race unfolds, Jolly may benefit from increased name recognition and positive framing.
The poll, commissioned by Freedom Project USA, was conducted by Change Research, a firm aligned with Democratic interests. The results reflect an informed ballot scenario, where respondents heard favorable descriptions of each candidate. This differs from standard unprompted polls, which may show different outcomes. Other pollsters have not yet released similar data, leaving the race's trajectory unclear.
The findings raise questions about the Republican grip on Florida, a state that has increasingly tilted conservative. Donalds, who has fundraising advantages and home-field support, now faces a formidable challenge from Jolly, a candidate who has yet to fully establish his presence in the electorate.